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Merger Arbitrage Spread Calculator
A target trading below the offer price isn't free money, it's the market pricing in deal risk. Back out exactly what odds of completion the current spread implies.
Reading This Tool
How To Use This Calculator
Enter the announced offer price, the target's current trading price, and where you think the stock lands if the deal breaks.
The current price sits somewhere between the offer price and the break price, weighted by the market's own probability estimate. Solve that equation backward and the spread tells you what the market thinks the odds of closing actually are, not what any one analyst guesses.
Your Inputs
Spread Economics
-Gross Spread
$0.00
Annualized Return, If Deal Closes
0.0%
Market-Implied Probability Of Completion
0.0%
Return If Deal Closes
0.0%
Return If Deal Breaks
0.0%
Payoff If The Deal Closes vs. Breaks
Assumes a single-payout cash deal with no competing bidder, no partial-completion outcomes, and no dividends paid while the deal is pending. Stock-for-stock deals need the acquirer's share price modeled too, which this simplified version doesn't do.