Monte Carlo Retirement Simulator

A single projected return hides the real risk in a retirement plan. This runs 500 randomized market paths at once and shows you the actual band of outcomes, not a comfortable average.

Reading This Tool

How To Use This Simulator

Enter your current portfolio, planned contributions, time horizon, and expected return and volatility.

The fan chart shows the 10th-90th percentile band of outcomes across 500 simulated market paths, with the median path in bold. A wide fan means real uncertainty in the plan, not a flaw in the math.

Your Inputs

Current Portfolio Value $150,000

Annual Contribution $12,000

Years To Retirement 25

Expected Annual Return 7.0%

Return Volatility (Std. Dev.) 15.0%

500 simulated paths run entirely in your browser using randomized annual returns drawn from a normal distribution around your expected return and volatility. Re-run anytime by adjusting an input, results will vary slightly between runs since this is a genuine simulation, not a fixed formula.

Projected Outcome Range

Median Projected Value At Retirement

10th Percentile (Weak Markets)

90th Percentile (Strong Markets)

500-Path Simulation Fan Chart

This simulation uses a simplified normal-distribution model of annual returns and does not account for sequence-of-returns risk mitigation, fees, taxes, or fat-tail market events. It illustrates a range of outcomes for planning discussion, not a guarantee or precise forecast of any kind.

Want a plan built around this range, not just the average?

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