Retirement Drawdown Monte Carlo Simulator

Run 500 randomized market paths against your withdrawal plan and see the actual odds your money lasts, not just what happens if returns come in exactly average, every single year.

Reading This Tool

How To Use This Calculator

Enter your starting portfolio, planned withdrawal, and your assumptions for return, volatility and inflation.

A single "average return" projection hides the real risk, sequence-of-returns risk, a few bad years early in retirement can sink a plan that looks fine on paper. The shaded band shows the 10th-to-90th percentile range across all 500 simulated paths, the success rate is the share that never hit zero.

Your Inputs

Starting Portfolio Value $1,000,000

Initial Annual Withdrawal $40,000

Expected Annual Return 6.0%

Annual Volatility (σ) 12.0%

Inflation, Withdrawal Growth 2.5%

Years In Retirement 30 yrs

Each adjustment re-runs 500 fresh simulated market paths using randomly drawn annual returns, so results will vary slightly from run to run, that's the nature of Monte Carlo simulation, not a bug.

Plan Success Rate

Success Rate, 500 Simulations

Median Ending Balance

10th Percentile Ending Balance

90th Percentile Ending Balance

Portfolio Balance Over Retirement, 10th-90th Percentile Band

Median Path 10th-90th Percentile Range

Returns are drawn from a normal distribution with the volatility you specify, a simplification, real markets have fatter tails and returns that aren't fully independent year to year. This estimates the shape of sequence-of-returns risk, not a guaranteed outcome.

Retirement income touches your tax return every year.

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